Final Predictions

 Yesterday I made this scoring table with predictions of how I expect to do in the seven events of the heptathlon. I actually came up with three numbers for each component–one that I would be disappointed with, another I would be satisfied with, and a third that I’d be thrilled with.  Even though I haven’t vaulted or run a 60 in competition, I think the ranges should be pretty accurate.  I’d be very surprised if any of my performances went “off the chart”. 

With the low numbers I would total 4,924 points, which is actually above last year’s winning score (4755). But from what I’ve heard there is going to be a lot more competition there this year. I guess if I won with less than 5,000 points the victory would temper some of the disappointment, but I wouldn’t be very happy.

My middle scores total 5,225 points, which is just under 750 per event. This would translate into a decathlon score of 7,500…which is pretty darn respectable. I think that as long as I came away with a couple of PRs or All-American marks I’d be satisfied with that number, win or lose.

If I were to have an epic day and perform at my best in all seven events my score would be just over 5600 points. This would be a new record for my age group. When I first decided to train for the heptathlon, the American record (5,482)was the number I was aiming for. I think if the event was scheduled for March like it usually is I would have had a chance at it.  But I was planning on three months of serious event training, not two weeks. I may get lucky and come close to some of those numbers, but hitting seven PRs without any training isn’t very likely.

The decision to make this trip was a difficult one because I knew I wasn’t as ready as I would like.  Hopefully I made the right choice.   Right now I just hope that I’m physically strong enough to put forth a maximum effort.  Otherwise it will be a long way to go for nothing.

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